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The Markets – November 04, 2024
IN THE MARKETS
The major indexes ended mostly lower after a busy week focused on both economic and earnings data, with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P MidCap 400 reaching record intraday highs on Wednesday before falling sharply on Thursday. Growth stocks generally trailed value stocks, influenced by cautious earnings reports from Meta Platforms and Microsoft, while small-cap stocks outperformed large-caps. Traders noted that around 42% of companies in the S&P 500 were set to report third-quarter earnings, including five of the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap tech stocks—Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon. By Friday, analysts polled by FactSet expected S&P 500 earnings to have grown 5.1% year-over-year, a faster pace than the 4.3% growth anticipated at the start of the season.
U.S. MARKETS
DOW & TECH
The Dow ended the week down 0.17% at 42,042.19 vs the prior week of 42,114.40.
The tech-driven Nasdaq ended the week down 1.50%, closing at 18,239.92 vs. the prior week of 18,518.61.
BY MARKET CAP
- Large-Cap: The S&P 500 ended the week down 1.37%, closing at 5728.80 compared to last week’s 5808.12.
- Mid-Cap: The S&P 400 mid-cap ended the week down 0.15%, closing at 3102.85 compared to last week’s 3107.51.
- Small-Cap: The Russell 2000 ended the week up 0.10%, closing at 2210.13 compared to last week’s 2207.99.
U.S. COMMODITIES / FUTURES OVERVIEW
THE VOLATILITY INDEX for 2024 (VIX)
VIX closed at 21.88 this week, a 7.6% increase vs last week’s close of 20.33
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
U.S. MARKET NEWS
Mixed Economic data
This week’s economic reports, especially on the labor market, drew significant attention with mixed indicators. On Tuesday, the Labor Department noted that job openings had dropped to 7.44 million in September—the lowest since January 2021—while voluntary job quits, a labor market strength measure, held steady. October payroll data, disrupted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton and the Boeing strike beginning September 13, showed unexpected fluctuations; private payroll firm ADP reported a 233,000 job increase, double expectations. Yet on Friday, the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls barely rose, with only 12,000 jobs added—the smallest increase since December 2020—mainly due to a 44,000-job loss in transport equipment from the Boeing strike, while most industries saw little change. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%, slightly above expectations. Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management reported that manufacturing activity fell for the seventh month, hitting a 15-month low of 46.5 as subdued demand and policy uncertainty held companies back from investing in capital and inventory.
INTERNATIONAL MARKET NEWS
Europe
The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index fell 1.52%, driven by concerns over potential Middle East conflict escalation, weak corporate earnings, and diminishing hopes for European Central Bank rate cuts. Major European stock indexes also declined: France’s CAC 40 lost 1.18%, Germany’s DAX dropped 1.07%, Italy’s FTSE MIB slid 1.42%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.87%. In the eurozone, economic growth doubled to 0.4% in Q3, with Germany narrowly avoiding a recession and France and Spain exceeding growth expectations, though Italy’s economy stagnated. Inflation rose to 2% in October from 1.7% in September, mainly as lower energy prices from last year no longer affected annual comparisons, while core inflation held at 2.7%. In the UK, Chancellor Rachel Reeves presented the first Labour government budget in 14 years, introducing GBP 70 billion in extra spending over five years funded by GBP 40 billion in tax increases and GBP 32 billion in additional borrowing, and loosened fiscal rules for higher borrowing levels. The Office for Budget Responsibility warned the higher taxes might dampen long-term growth, adjusting its forecasts to just over 1% growth this year and 2% next year. To reassure investors after the budget triggered a bond market sell-off, Reeves emphasized Labour’s commitment to “economic and fiscal stability,” affirming that the public finances were now on a “stable and solid trajectory.”
Japan
Japan’s stock markets gained over the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising 0.37% and the TOPIX Index up 1.0%, as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held rates steady amid ongoing political uncertainty. In the October 27 election, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-Komeito coalition failed to secure a majority in the lower house, with the opposition gaining ground due to public dissatisfaction over an LDP corruption scandal and rising living costs. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s LDP now faces the prospect of a minority government and is seeking support from smaller parties to maintain control. Following the election, the yen initially weakened against the U.S. dollar on expectations of political uncertainty potentially affecting fiscal policy and BoJ’s outlook. The BoJ held its policy rate steady at 0.25% as expected, and slightly less dovish comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda provided some support to the yen, which ended the week around JPY 152 per USD, close to its starting level.
China
Chinese stocks declined despite data suggesting an uptick in economic activity. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.84%, and the blue-chip CSI 300 dropped 1.68%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.41%, according to FactSet. China’s factory activity expanded for the first time since April, with the official manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1 in October from 49.8 in September, exceeding expectations and crossing the 50-mark that indicates growth. The nonmanufacturing PMI, covering construction and services, edged up to 50.2, supported in part by increased spending during the Golden Week holiday, although it missed forecasts. The Caixin/S&P Global survey of manufacturing activity also improved, reaching 50.3 in October from 49.3, amid new order growth. In the property sector, new home sales by the top 100 developers rose 7.1% year-on-year, a sharp recovery from September’s 37.7% decline, marking 2024’s first year-over-year increase, according to China Real Estate Information Corp.
FINALLY
PERCEPTION VS. REALITY. The human brain is complex and powerful. It runs on about 20 watts of power and brains need to be recharged, just like your cell phone does, according to Northwestern Medicine.
It’s interesting to note that brains are not objective. They catalog our experiences, beliefs, and emotions and then interpret what’s happening around us. As a result, our reality on any given day is affected by “our personal physical abilities, energy levels, feelings, social identities, and more,” reported Jill Suttie in Greater Good Magazine.
For example, studies have found that hills look steeper when people are:
- Tired.
- Wearing backpacks.
- Thinking of people they dislike.
In contrast, hills look less steep when people feel energetic or think of a supportive friend.
An August survey from the National Federation of Independent Business, a small-business advocacy group, reinforced the idea that there is a gap between economic perception and economic reality. The survey found that small business owners were quite optimistic about the financial state of their businesses, reasonably optimistic about the state of their local economies, and pessimistic about the state of the U.S. economy.
When survey participants were asked when the United States might experience another recession, 52 percent said the U.S. economy was in a recession right now. A recession is a downturn in economic activity that lasts for a significant period. Economic data show the U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product (the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S.), has been growing since late 2020.
The answers were interesting because most businesses—small and large—experience declines in sales and profitability when the national economy is doing poorly or in a recession. The gap in perception and reality may reflect the fact that “people are upbeat about what they see directly but pessimistic about what they glean indirectly through media (and social media),” opined Rabinovitch of The Economist